This weekend, we have a 12-fight card with 2 title struggles in Toronto, Canada. We’re back to having PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are a few strong GPPs to chase this week. The most important GPP is a $10 entrance with $25,000 to 1st place. These are always my favorite contests to pursue so I’ll be shooting some shots at that. Other than that, I’ll stick to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and that I will get a fantastic quantity of play in cash games. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I like this week as well as my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ may be the simplest money game punt of all time at $6.8k. The line for Fight Goes To Decision is currently -195 and if we are getting 5-rounds from JJ with all the striking volume she puts out then we have a good floor there and it doesn’t matter whether she loses or wins. At that cost she lets you cover up for a few heavy favorites and if we can get 4 additional areas to win with a ~40-point loss from JJ within our lineup then we will be sitting very pretty in our cash games this weekend.
GPP play of this week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is currently lined at -495 for this battle. The most likely outcome is that somebody in this fight gets hauled out in 15-minutes. With that knock-out probably comes in least one 10-point knock down. If that may be in the 1st round, then you’re currently at 100-points even if it is just the 1st punch/kick of the evening. At $8.8k that’s more than sufficient to give you a chance at 1st place at a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this fight and Manuwa is 38-years old today, so that he can’t have a lot of time at the game left. I think we function together with the favorite here and toss into our GPP lineups and then wait for the fireworks.
Underdog play of the week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week due to his wrestling/grappling possible. In addition, I think he’s a live underdog here. Lopez lost his last 2 fights by knockout, so that’s what I would worry about most with him Brad Katona is probably the better striker of both but he has never knocked out anybody, so I think we have a solid flooring here at $7.3k even if this struggle does stay standing because I do not see Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is probably the better wrestler of the two though and I think he lands several takedowns in this battle and may win a choice using a wrestling-heavy game program. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 57 percent precision, and if he is getting pieced up on the feet I am sure he is going to be going for much greater than this. At $7.3k I believe Lopez makes for a good play in all formats and I believe he has a split decision win here as the street underdog.
Fade of this week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I’m fading a few fighters this week personally, but the individual I never considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I do not think she could win, since she for certain can, and I think she does. But I don’t see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a triumph. I think we’d need a finish from her in this struggle to get 10x that salary and I believe that’s quite unlikely to happen. Or, she’ll need FightMetric to rely all her screams as important strikes. The maximum Chookagian has scored in a UFC fight so far in her career is 83 DK points and that has been against Irene Aldana who places a much higher rate than Jessica Eye does. Even if she could get 83-points here afterward that still would not be enough here to place her in the winning lineup in her 8.7k price label. I think if you are earning 20 or less lineups that Saturday you can safely fade Chookagian and when she’s a triumph it shouldn’t hurt much.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown each fight on the card and provide my entire DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my select predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
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