This weekend, we have a 12-fight card at Russia. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to win a great deal of cash from this week contemplating it’s a more compact card and starts at 10:15am ET. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will attempt to receive my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at that $25k decoration, and then I will probably take a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a great amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I really don’t think there are really no money locks nowadays, so I needed to bring up a cash strategy I use a great deal of the moment, which is punting in cash and accepting a reduction. I don’t think Roxy gets the win here, but she is only $6.9k and I think she gets 15-minutes of actions. I like the floor which accompanies this and punting along with her cheap price enables us to fit in more of those higher favorites with our other five spots. We don’t want 6 wins in money games, so I do not think we need to even try for it. I like playing cash games safer and if I can lock in 25-35 points in a loss from Roxy in her cheap price I’m totally ok with that. I look for 4 wins in money and above 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal every week. Let everyone else make the errors and only shoot for a score which may beat 50% or more of the field.
GPP drama of this week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This really is an all-in fight for GPPs in my opinion and I enjoy Overeem as one of my best plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so that I would be shocked to see this move all 5 rounds. In addition, I believe Overeem will be too fast for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is amounts before him at the striking game. The only shooter Oleinik has of winning on the feet is by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing submission. Besides those two results, Overeem will smoke him on the toes. I also think Overeem can work his way back to his toes if he’s taken down and the more Oleinik shoots for takedowns the faster he will gas outside. I like the -175 ITD lineup that comes with Overeem here and I believe he gets a finish in around 2 or 1. That should provide us close to 100 DK points if not more, and I need that in lots of my GPP lineups.
Underdog drama of the week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no longer the underdog on the gambling line (-120) however DraftKings salaries do not change as soon as they’re released. We get Fiziev here for $800 cheaper than Mustafaev and he is preferred to get the win. I was very impressed with what I saw out of this child and I concur with the line motion. I do think he gets the win , but it’s the DK value that we want to make certain to find exposure to this weekend. I think he is a great play cash games with the present price and I hope to be obese on him GPPs too. We must roster underdogs in our lineups and when we could use a popular as one of these”underdogs” I am usually on board for it.
Fade of this week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of this week because of her $9.3k price tag. I really do think she gets the win here as I said previously, I just don’t see how she can pay off that salary without a finish. I don’t see her shooting for any takedowns in this game, and I do not wish to rely on her getting knockdown points either. So, we’re only likely to be getting 0.5 points each significant strike, and then the 30-point win bonus when she wins a choice. If that is true, we’d need her to land over 126 sig strikes just to secure more than 10x value. I really don’t see that being true and I think she likely scores 80-85 DK points at a decision win. At her salary, that won’t win anyone the large $25k. That is the prize I am shooting so that’s why she’s my fade of the week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I am 69-41 for +237.39u (+$23,739) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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