BIG MARLEY’S UFC 227 BETTING PREVIEW

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There’s a lot of money to be won this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the primary tournament. DK also has a lot of Qualifier contests on this week, where the final event will pay $50k to 1st if you did qualify to play inside. I’ll be pursuing those as well since we’ve not ever had a $50k 1st place prize and I need it. I do think we have a fun card this Saturday and that I am ready to enter this 3-week break using a winning night in UFC 227. Here are a few plays I enjoy this weekend along with my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of this week — Demetrious Johnson ($9,400)
Demetrious Johnson is the safest play in most DFS MMA and he’s the highest ceiling as well. DJ is the P4P best fight on earth (not counting Jon Jones) and he has already beat Cejudo once before. This is the very first person I am plugging in my cash LU this week and I advise you to do exactly the same. DJ is almost guaranteed to score at 100-points in a win, and he’s got a -550 betting line stating he must find the win again here. Play it safe and use DJ in money. You can pile this fight as well, but I think DJ is essential.
GPP play of this week — Thiago Santos ($9,200)
This is a great fight to target this week since it most likely will not visit a decision. Holland just fought on the Contender Series a couple weeks ago and did not get a contract. But today he’s about the PPV against one of the most bizarre strikers from the branch. The ITD line for Santos is currently -210 and the under 1.5 rounds gambling line is -160. This tells me Vegas thinks this battle ends early and Santos is the man that should pick up the finish. At $9.2k, he readily pays that price tag off in a 1st round win and I presume he’s a good shot at doing just that. I don’t care for him in cash game formats however because both guys have quite lower floors, so this is a GPP just play for me personally.
Underdog play of this week — Brett Johns ($7,400)
I think everybody is writing off Brett Johns after his loss to Aljo Sterling and that is why he’s so economical on DraftKings this weekend. Together with the wrestling fashion Johns brings to the table, he has 100+ upside even in a decision win. Obviously, we are worried about him becoming caught in a guillotine if he shoots for takedowns, but if he can avoid I think he can win this battle and 10x his salary with a triumph. I really don’t think Johns will wish to hit with Munhoz for 15-minutes so that I really do believe he is going to be shooting for takedowns. Those takedowns can get him filed, or they may get him a win over the scorecards. But that makes him a boom or bust play and that’s why he is a good underdog to select in GPPs this week.
Fade of this week — Danielle Taylor ($7,500)
Even in an affordable $7.5k on DraftKings, Taylor will still need a finish to cover that price tag off with her style. She has the worst fashion possible for scoring DraftKings point and even if she’s a win here she could wind up scoring significantly less than several losers on the card. Taylor is going to be the least possessed fighter in GPPs this week, so in the event that you would like to invest your money on a 115 pound lady with a”punchers chance” of winning you a GPP, then you will be quite contrarian taking that route. However, I don’t have any interest in investing my money into that so I will have Taylor in 0 of my lineups this week. If I had been making 150 lineups, I would still complete fade Taylor here.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

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