This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card at Philly on big ESPN. DraftKings has some strong contests and that I look forward to pursuing the huge GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $30k belongs to 1st place with a total of $500k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that match. I won my very first seat into it a few weeks ago and I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at the $30 decoration, and then I will likely have a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Main Event Stack, Justin Gaethje AND Edson Barboza
When I pile a struggle in cash games I need a minimum of 100 total points. Ideally more like 150 or even more, but I’ll take 100-point floor together with the guaranteed win. Together with Gaethje fights, we’re pretty much locked into that 100+ and we’ve seen his struggles even total over 200 DK points. He is the perfect style for accruing DraftKings points and should we use Edson too, then we’re guaranteed a win and probably 150+ points. Give me that all day. This is how I’ll be starting my money lineup and I will figure out the rest from there. I will take the loss because we don’t desire 6 wins in money games. 1st place and 5th place get paid exactly the same at a 10-man double-up, so I’m not shooting first and I would rather play it safer with my money lineups.
GPP drama of this week — Enrique Barzola — $8,200
This is not a sneaky play whatsoever but Barzola should be a terrific play when he shoots takedowns. In his 5 UFC wins he has 36 takedowns. That is precisely what we need on DraftKings. Every takedown is 5-points and he can stand up enough to score 100+ points. If he could score over 100 DK points here at $8.2k he’s for sure going to win somebody $30k. I really do expect him to be chalky this week, but he’s a lot of scoring possible for me to fade the chalk. I’ll likely be in accord with the area on possession with my lineups, maybe overweight.
Underdog drama of the week — Michelle Waterson — $7,600
I like Waterson here because she is the fighter that will be looking for takedowns in this fight. I think she can get a few and she could have the ability to lock a entry if that’s the case. That’s her ceiling in this fight, but I enjoy her more for cash games because of her floor. I really don’t see KK finishing Waterson, so I believe we get three full rounds of scoring out of her. Even in a reduction she could put up 30-40 DK points and in cash games that is fine. I will be using her in GPPs as well, but I do not think she submits KK. I’d guess she places up about ~80 DK points at a decision win when she’s ready to receive the success.
Fade of this week — Sabina Mazo ($8,800)
I am spreading my exposure out on most of the favorites this week at GPPs however Mazo is the one I am interested at least. I believe the only way she outscores her $8.8k salary would be by getting another head kick KO. I don’t think that is quite probable at all and that I feel that a decision win is most likely for her. I really don’t see her going for any takedowns or getting many/any knockdowns, so that I don’t see how she scores highly in a decision triumph. I will have zero lineups using Mazo this week and if I had been making 100 lineups I’d still likely full fade . Hopefully it does not burn me, however, she’s my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I’m 63-41for +210.99 (+$21,099) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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